STOCK SELECTION CRITERIA
Earnings Power Play
Low P/E
- We require Earnings Yield (E/P) in excess of the 20-year AA corporate bond rate.
- Modified “Fed Model. We use the “AA”-rated corporate bond rate in place of the risk-free rate.
- Graham and Dodd used similar criteria and believed that when a stock’s earnings yield > low risk, long-term corporate bond rates, the stock reflected current realities rather than future growth projections.
- High Risk-Adjusted Returns have been achieved by buying low P/E stocks, as documented by numerous academic studies.
High ROE
- Consistently high and sustainable return-on-equity in excess of 15% is often the result of a business with wide moats and a defensible niche.
- A declining return-on-equity often predicts an earnings decline and thus poor stock performance.
Clean Balance Sheet
- Low debt-to-capital relative to industry peers.
- If interest rates cannot consistently be predicted, it’s best to have a clean balance sheet.
- Low leverage ratios enable companies to weather the storm.
Positive Free Cash Flow
- Positive free cash flow gives management the flexibility to pay and/or raise dividends, buy-back shares, reduce debt, make strategic acquisitions and fund organic growth.
- With free cash flow, management can accomplish all of these “value-added” tasks. without tapping the credit markets, a competitive advantage during periods of capital markets stress.
Discounted Valuation
- Stocks must trade at a minimum 40% discount to private market value.
Management Integrity
- Management should utilize conservative accounting and have incentives that align with shareholders.
Growth Outpacing Inflation
- Management must be able to articulate a business plan to grow earnings and revenues faster than inflation on a secular basis.
Asset Play
- Sells at a minimum 40% discount to conservatively valued tangible assets.
- Company should meet criteria for Earnings Power Play in the future under reasonable macro-economic conditions.
Diversification
Portfolio Diversification relative to macroeconomic variables rather than benchmark-relative sector weightings
- Cost and availability of capital
- Cost and availability of labor
- GDP growth rate
- The cost and availability of materials inputs including energy
- Inflation rate
- Relationship of the US dollar to foreign currencies
Sell Criteria
Stocks are sold when they meet one of the two tests:
- Trade at 150% of the price-to-earnings ratio that would qualify the stock for purchase as an earnings power play
- Trade at 85% of our estimate of private market value
