Q3 2011
In science it is standard practice to perform experiments, measure the results and then use the data to validate a hypothesis. In a federal system of government, the states can frequently serve as a laboratory for testing alternative approaches to societal problems. We examine several instances in which states have approached the same issues in vastly different ways which resulted in vastly different outcomes, and note that there seems to be little point in experimentation when the data is routinely ignored.
Q2 2011
Insider trading has been very much in the news lately. Yet despite a spate of high profile convictions there is no single statute which uses the phrase "insider trading", defines who is an "insider", or delineates which information is "material". This essay explores the tension between regulators, who prefer vague laws that permit expansive interpretation, and market participants, who seek clarity about which acts are illegal and which are not.
Q1 2011
An exploration of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve's massive stimulus program, one of which is the reluctance of corporations to hire when faced with margin pressure from soaring commodity prices.
Q4 2010
An essay about confirmation bias, the near-universal tendency to focus on data which supports our beliefs (while ignoring contrary data) and which frequently leads to poor investment decisions.
Q3 2010
ETFs, closed-end mutual funds which trade continuously throughout the day like stocks, have enjoyed explosive growth. In this essay we consider how their unique structure sometimes causes them to diverge sharply from the indices they are supposed to track, and how they hold the potential to destabilize markets in unexpected ways.
Q2 2010
Anecdotal evidence of the way in which litigation by a few activists stalls economic development that would benefit society as a whole, while acknowledging that the resulting loss of American jobs and competitiveness may be the inevitable price for avoiding the ecological degradation that frequently accompanies unfettered development.
Q1 2010
An examination of the phenomenon in which a group of independent individuals often make more accurate predictions than experts, and the divergent forecasts now being sent by stock and bond investors.
Q4 2009
An essay on the long-term risks to the American economy from the Federal Reserve’s prescription for artificially low interest rates as a cure for the problems that resulted from the previous period of artificially low interest rates.
Q3 2009
An examination of the history of the nationalization of private enterprises in the U.S., and the likely impact of the current wave of nationalizations on long-term competitiveness.
Q2 2009
An essay about how conflicting government policy objectives can place executives between a rock and a hard place, and undermine confidence in the capital markets.
Q1 2009
An analysis of the implications of the looming huge shortfall in the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds and recommendations for how to position portfolios.
Q4 2008
How the world’s financial system nearly unraveled in the aftermath of the collective delusion that real estate could only appreciate.
Q3 2008
Speculators have long served as the scapegoat for the nation’s financial ills. But a nuanced analysis suggests that the role of speculators (and their tools, derivatives) is essential to the functioning of a modern economy.
Q2 2008
An analysis of how the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy ultimately created the credit crunch.
Q1 2008
A brief description of the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean and why it suggests that investors should be buying, rather than selling, stocks.
Q4 2007
A discussion of the manner in which our evolutionary development inhibits our ability to invest rationally.
